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Poster
in
Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: Global Perspectives and Local Challenges

Deep ensembles to improve uncertainty quantification of statistical downscaling models under climate change conditions

Jose González-Abad · Jorge Baño-Medina

Keywords: [ Climate science and climate modeling ] [ Uncertainty quantification and robustness ]


Abstract:

Recently, Deep Learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate change conditions remains questionable, mainly due to the stationarity assumption. We propose deep ensembles as a simple method to improve the uncertainty quantification of statistical downscaling models. Since no observational future data exists, we rely on a pseudo reality experiment to assess the suitability of deep ensembles for quantifying the uncertainty of climate change projections. Deep ensembles allow for a better risk assessment, highly demanded by sectoral applications to tackle climate change.

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