Poster
in
Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: Global Perspectives and Local Challenges
Deep ensembles to improve uncertainty quantification of statistical downscaling models under climate change conditions
Jose González-Abad · Jorge Baño-Medina
Keywords: [ Climate science and climate modeling ] [ Uncertainty quantification and robustness ]
Recently, Deep Learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate change conditions remains questionable, mainly due to the stationarity assumption. We propose deep ensembles as a simple method to improve the uncertainty quantification of statistical downscaling models. Since no observational future data exists, we rely on a pseudo reality experiment to assess the suitability of deep ensembles for quantifying the uncertainty of climate change projections. Deep ensembles allow for a better risk assessment, highly demanded by sectoral applications to tackle climate change.