Anomaly detection in time-series has a wide range of practical applications. While numerous anomaly detection methods have been proposed in the literature, a recent survey concluded that no single method is the most accurate across various datasets. To make matters worse, anomaly labels are scarce and rarely available in practice. The practical problem of selecting the most accurate model for a given dataset without labels has received little attention in the literature. This paper answers this question \textit{i.e.} Given an unlabeled dataset and a set of candidate anomaly detectors, how can we select the most accurate model? To this end, we identify three classes of surrogate (unsupervised) metrics, namely, \textit{prediction error}, \textit{model centrality}, and \textit{performance on injected synthetic anomalies}, and show that some metrics are highly correlated with standard supervised anomaly detection performance metrics such as the $F_1$ score, but to varying degrees. We formulate metric combination with multiple imperfect surrogate metrics as a robust rank aggregation problem. We then provide theoretical justification behind the proposed approach. Large-scale experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed unsupervised approach is as effective as selecting the most accurate model based on partially labeled data.

Over-parameterized residual networks (ResNets) are amongst the most successful convolutional neural architectures for image processing. Here we study their properties through their Gaussian Process and Neural Tangent kernels. We derive explicit formulas for these kernels, analyze their spectra, and provide bounds on their implied condition numbers. Our results indicate that (1) with ReLU activation, the eigenvalues of these residual kernels decay polynomially at a similar rate compared to the same kernels when skip connections are not used, thus maintaining a similar frequency bias; (2) however, residual kernels are more locally biased. Our analysis further shows that the matrices obtained by these residual kernels yield favorable condition numbers at finite depths than those obtained without the skip connections, enabling therefore faster convergence of training with gradient descent.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across tasks in language understanding and interactive decision making, their abilities for reasoning (e.g. chain-of-thought prompting) and acting (e.g. action plan generation) have primarily been studied as separate topics. In this paper, we explore the use of LLMs to generate both reasoning traces and task-specific actions in an interleaved manner, allowing for greater synergy between the two: reasoning traces help the model induce, track, and update action plans as well as handle exceptions, while actions allow it to interface with external sources, such as knowledge bases or environments, to gather additional information. We apply our approach, named ReAct, to a diverse set of language and decision making tasks and demonstrate its effectiveness over state-of-the-art baselines, as well as improved human interpretability and trustworthiness over methods without reasoning or acting components. Concretely, on question answering (HotpotQA) and fact verification (Fever), ReAct overcomes issues of hallucination and error propagation prevalent in chain-of-thought reasoning by interacting with a simple Wikipedia API, and generates human-like task-solving trajectories that are more interpretable than baselines without reasoning traces. On two interactive decision making benchmarks (ALFWorld and WebShop), ReAct outperforms imitation and reinforcement learning methods by an absolute success rate of 34% and 10% respectively, while being prompted with only one or two in-context examples.

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must be able to detect instances with labels from outside the distribution for which they were trained.In this paper we present a novel framework to benchmark the ability of image classifiers to detect class-out-of-distribution instances(i.e., instances whose true labels do not appear in the training distribution) at various levels of detection difficulty.We apply this technique to ImageNet, and benchmark 525 pretrained, publicly available, ImageNet-1k classifiers. The code for generating a benchmark for any ImageNet-1k classifier, along with the benchmarks prepared for the above-mentioned 525 models is available at https://github.com/mdabbah/COOD_benchmarking.The usefulness of the proposed framework and its advantage over alternative existing benchmarks is demonstrated by analyzing the results obtained for these models, which reveals numerous novel observations including:(1) knowledge distillation consistently improves class-out-of-distribution (C-OOD) detection performance; (2) a subset of ViTs performs better C-OOD detection than any other model; (3) the language–-vision CLIP model achieves good zero-shot detection performance, with its best instance outperforming 96% of all other models evaluated; (4) accuracy and in-distribution ranking are positively correlated to C-OOD detection; and (5) we compare various confidence functions for C-OOD detection.Our companion paper, also published in ICLR 2023 (What Can We Learn From The Selective Prediction And Uncertainty Estimation Performance Of 523 Imagenet Classifiers), examines the uncertainty estimation performance (ranking, calibration, and selective prediction performance) of these classifiers in an in-distribution setting.

Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems constrain to smaller ensembles and lower-capacity networks, significantly deteriorating their performance and properties. We introduce Packed-Ensembles (PE), a strategy to design and train lightweight structured ensembles by carefully modulating the dimension of their encoding space. We leverage grouped convolutions to parallelize the ensemble into a single shared backbone and forward pass to improve training and inference speeds. PE is designed to operate within the memory limits of a standard neural network. Our extensive research indicates that PE accurately preserves the properties of DE, such as diversity, and performs equally well in terms of accuracy, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to distribution shift. We make our code available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty.