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Poster

Copula Conformal prediction for multi-step time series prediction

Sophia Sun · Rose Yu

Halle B
[ ]
Thu 9 May 1:45 a.m. PDT — 3:45 a.m. PDT

Abstract:

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper we propose the Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On four synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and efficient confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

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